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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

However this year's competition is distinctly different. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and longtime underperformers rising in unison. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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