A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
